As 2024 is drawing to a close, the interference rate and production situation on the supply and demand sides this year have become clearer. Based on public data, survey data on the supply and demand sides throughout the year, and SMM assessment of future conditions, SMM has derived the expected global copper concentrates supply-demand balance results for 2024-2028.
On the supply side, the global increase in copper concentrates mainly comes from the expansion of brownfield copper mine projects rather than greenfield copper mine projects. There are very few large high-quality potential greenfield projects available for development globally. Currently, greenfield copper mine projects include Mongolia's Tsagaan Suvarga copper mine, China's Hongniupo copper mine, the Philippines' Tampakan, Afghanistan's Mes Aynak, and Argentina's Josemaria Project.
On the demand side, global copper primary smelting capacity is rapidly increasing, with China being a significant driver of this rapid expansion. From 2024 to 2028, several large copper primary smelting projects will be launched in China, posing a significant challenge for Chinese smelters in procuring copper concentrates.
After sorting out the basic situation on both the supply and demand sides, SMM combined the interference rates on both sides to obtain the expected global copper concentrates supply-demand balance table for 2024-2028. SMM believes that this year's supply-demand balance result is already negative, but next year's result will be severely imbalanced to -822,000 mt in metal content. After that, the negative value will gradually converge, which means that copper smelters, represented by those in Asia, may face capacity exits, mergers and acquisitions, or bankruptcy liquidations. Currently, it seems that only liquidating some primary smelting capacity can reverse the shortage of copper concentrates.
